Hundreds of soldiers have already died or are dying, hit while defenseless, twiddling their thumbs, in an overwhelmingly unpopular war for Israel. Trump's latest TACO says it all.
Prisoner's dilemma
The prisoner's dilemma is instructive for US and Iran. If both sides don't betray the other, they get off free.
If one betrays the other, he goes free and the other gets 10 yrs. If they betray each other, they both get 5 yrs. The Iranians always take the high ground in negotiations. You may not like their position but they stick to it. In Islam contracts, promises are sacred. An eye for an eye.
Trump?! Trump always betrays, breaks promises when it's to his advantage. Trump betrayed when he tore up the JCPOA in 2017, when he assassinated General Soleimani in 2020.
Trump betrayed during negotiations in 2025 and got off lightly round one, murdering and assassinating thousands. Iran did not retaliate but was prepared after that. So round two: Trump pretended to be negotiating again, and betrayed, started bombing at the same time.
But Iran was ready and the US called a halt after being walloped. Iran reluctantly agreed to a very favorable MOU, promised the sky. Of course, Trump betrayed Iran AGAIN.
It's clear Trump has to leave the schoolyard. No one wants to play with him anymore. The only way out is to walk away. The US doesn't need Hormuz oil. It can/will leave Hormuz in Iranian hands (it's already there and ain't goin' nowhere). When the Prisoner's Dilemma is played over and over, it turns out the betrayers eventually are pushed out.
So that game is done with.
How about chess?
Black's move? Iran won't let the Gulfies use the Strait unless they kick out the Americans and establish a real Gulf Council with Iran. Iran just rewrote the Middle East by obliterating the US bases. So Iran has that move well underway.
White's move? The US still boycotts, bans, etc, Iran. That still leaves Iran without its frozen assets and normal international financial rights. And Gaza, Lebanon and now Syria being carved up and/or obliterated. That's Trump's only way to stick it to Iran and claim at least a stand-off. So what? Iran sells its oil to China and builds the Silk Road again for Eurasia.
Essentially returning to the pre-war stand-off but with the Gulfies on Iran's side and Israel in genocidal overdrive. So it's still a 'loss'.
And the game's not over. It's black's turn. Iran will move on to attack Israel, following up on the fine print in the MOU, surely joined by Turkey, maybe Pakistan, Iraq, Qatar ... At long last the ummah waking up.
Alternately, Trump could be the real peacemaker and push Netanyahu to withdraw from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, which he did politely yesterday. The only fly in the US imperial ointment now is Israel. Withdrawal won't fly, but neither will the fly-in-the-ointment fly if it can't cannibalize the US any longer.
The gathering storm clouds from all Israel's neighbors could mean the end of genocidal, apartheid Israel.
That will save US imperialism for some more nightmarish years, and pulling the plug on Israel could lead to genuine peace breaking out all over the Middle East. The US would blossom too, without the warmongers in power and the vampire sucking its blood. Would that stave off Trump's ever approaching impeachment?
Recall Vietnam (the war that keeps on giving). Nixon basically just walked away (after killing an extra million Vietnamese), leaving southeast Asia dominated by China and Vietnam, i.e., in the Communists' hands. He astonishingly made lovey-dovey with genocidal Mao Zedong and even Pol Pot, and no one batted an eyelash. Trump could discover his inner Muslim prince.
Gulf war III/IV (I've lost count) is looking like a 21st c version of Vietnam. Impeaching Nixon on a technicality made him a kind of scapegoat for all the poison of the Vietnam years WITHOUT undermining the military-industrial complex. Trump fits the bill in spades. He can be impeached for his lechery, not his pathological imperialist politics. The military-industrial complex would still be safe.
The upside from the Nixon-Ford-Carter aftermath of Vietnam was that from 1975 to 1980, the US had an epiphany, humbled by its defeat. Congress came alive, bringing the CIA under civilian control, president and Congress worked together to sign disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union, joining it in outerspace with Apollo-Soyz. Carter amnestied draft dodgers, Save the Planet activism took off. Heady years.
Sadly, that came to an end with the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis, and the election of Trump (sorry, Reagan) in 1980. So we come full circle to Iran as the other fly in the US imperial ointment, but one that is benign if treated with respect.
Is there any hope for a Nixon-Ford remix and its upside this time around? The signs are not good after Congress passed the US-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative, fusing US-Israel minds and military. But perhaps this is wishful thinking. There may not be an Israel if Israel's neighbors finally—thanks to Iran—get to have any say. It won't be the first agreement the US as reneged on.
Let's give the tongue-in-cheek Taliban their say
I'm trying to think of an appropriate visual for this latest debacle. What comes to mind is
See also Essays on War and Peace ebook by Eric Walberg
and Essays on Christianity, Islam, Judaism by Eric Walberg